K-12 Enrollment Forecasting in an Era of Demographic Change

Date and time

Tuesday, October 20, 2026 | 12:00-1:00 PM
(UTC-05:00) Eastern Time (US & Canada)

About

How confident are you in your enrollment forecasts, and are the methods behind them still keeping pace?

School enrollment forecasting sits at the intersection of demography, spatial analysis, public finance, and educational policy. The tools and methods for predicting student populations can differ widely from one place to another, and knowing which approach to trust — and when — makes all the difference.

Designed exclusively for those working in the K-12 realm, join Shaun Brown, Facilities Master Planner at Roth IAMS, for this engaging session where he’ll explore everything from traditional cohort-survival methods to modern GIS-based spatial analysis and innovative machine learning techniques. Shaun will share insights from both North American and international practices, helping you understand when and why certain methods work best, and when they might not.

Shaun will unpack how changing fertility rates and demographic shifts are influencing enrollment predictions, and what a top-tier forecasting program looks like in action.

If you’re in facility planning or school administration, this is your opportunity to build the practical knowledge needed to make smarter decisions about schools and resources, all grounded in solid enrollment data.

What You’ll Gain

  1. Identifying and distinguishing the six main forecasting methods
  2. How structural demographic trends have altered the reliability of traditional trend-based forecasting models
  3. The conditions under which GIS-based spatial analysis substantially improves forecast accuracy
  4. The key characteristics of best-practice enrollment forecasting systems
  5. Applying a framework for selecting and combining forecasting methods

Presenters and Attendees

Shaun Brown

Presenter

Facilities Master Planner

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